The US-Iran peace agreement signed on 14 June has opened the Strait of Hormuz in principle, but clearing naval mines will require 40 to 50 days before insurers and oil producers deem the waterway safe, according to five Western maritime security sources. Roughly 300 loaded tankers remain stationary inside the Gulf, with another 300 empty vessels queued outside — a fleet frozen since the IRGC closure order reduced daily transits from 153 to 13.
LNG carrier Disha, chartered by India's Petronet, has become the first confirmed vessel to transit Hormuz carrying a QatarEnergy cargo with AIS switched on — the eighth QatarEnergy-linked LNG carrier to exit the Gulf since shipments resumed in late May. BIMCO has cautioned that "unclear statements" from both parties mean transits remain high-risk.
Onshore, UAE's Habshan Gas Plant is operating at 60% capacity following conflict-related damage; officials expect 80% by year-end and full structural restoration only in 2027. ICIS forecasts Qatar and UAE LNG output will return by August 2026 at reduced capacity, with two of Qatar's fourteen Ras Laffan LNG trains still offline.
The 40–50 day demining window pushes Gulf offshore CAPEX acceleration to early August at the earliest. ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and QatarEnergy will defer FID approvals and EPC tender awards until insurance premiums normalise and vessel traffic resumes at scale.
Expatriate professionals who relocated during the 100-day closure are unlikely to return en masse before Q3, creating a window where contractor mobilisation costs remain elevated. The Habshan plant damage means associated offshore gas production support roles will not return to full workforce until 2027.
